In Iran, there are many investigations about landuse change which usually mention negative side. In this research landuse/land cover change trend investigate with use of landsat image and Markov chain in IDRISI Andes V15 software at the period of 1990, 2004 and 2018, and predicted changes for 2032 in Marvdasht region. There are about 196000 ha, equal to 91%, that used for cultivation, while range land, bare land and urban area are about 20000 ha, respectively 4. 9, 2. 7 and 1. 6 percent of region area. In 28 years, from 1990 to 2018, agricultural and range lands decrease about 9%, while bare lands and urban area increased. At this period bare lands increased from 2. 7% to 11. 29% of the total region area. In general, the results of this study indicate that in the long-term, agricultural lands are declining and bare land is increasing, Hence immediate management plans are necessary to prevent the destruction of agricultural land.

This Article tries to answer this question: which theory can help us to understand & explain the Nature of Arab World Changes in the nature of Arab World Changes in sol, and predict the future trends of these changes? Author argues that everyone of these six theories including failed state, uprising against humiliation, Pervasive penetration, fourth Wave of Democracy, modification of Anti-Americanism and return ti Islamic Identity, can Explain some aspects of changes in Arab world, Mean while, the theory of “Anachronistic Governance”, Can give us a more comprehensive Explanation of these changes.

Background and Objective: Researchers investigate and identify the gaps and frequency of studies related to specific knowledge by using scientometrics. The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of scientific research in the field of climate change in Iran. Materials and Methods: All articles affiliated with Iran in the field of climate change have been cited in Scopus databases from 1991 to December 9, 2019, and were retrieved by using keywords like "climate change", "global warming", "global change", "climate variability", "greenhouse gas". The data were analyzed using R software. Results: The total number of documents was 2253. The trend of document production in the field of climate change in Iran follows an increasing exponential trend. Iran's collaboration with other countries in the field of climate change studies was significant so around 25% of scientific productions have been produced jointly with other countries. Keywords analysis showed a greater frequency for keywords including "downscaling", "energy", "global warming" and "uncertainty". However, despite the importance of issues such as "adaptation" and "vulnerability" concerning climate change in Iran, the frequency of these keywords in climate change studies in Iran is low. Conclusion: Based on the results of this study and considering the importance of climate change and its effects on the country, also the importance of greenhouse gases including CO2, and the rank of Iran as the eighth country in the emission of these gases, it is recommended to pay more attention to issues such as "vulnerability", "adaptability", analysis of "greenhouse gases production", "management of energy consumption" and the use of "renewable energies" in future studies.

In this paper we have studied the trend and bias of technological change in Iran’s cement industry by dual cost function approach. This approach is useful to estimation of factors demand structure with regard to changes of factors price and technological situation. We estimated a translog cost function in addition to equations system of cost share, using Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) approach during the period 1355-1385. The results show that the rate of technological change has been -1.12 percent during the studied years. It means that there is a decrease in rate of cost of productive units along with time. Furthermore, the results indicate that technological change has been biased towards the use of more energy.

The industrialization process analysis in developing countries, more than anything emphasis on production efficiency from the perspective of cost, and in the other words comparative advantage. Industrial plants cultivation not only accelerates transition change from traditional agricultural to modern agriculture, but also causes of stimulate industries that it has provided the raw material. However, the focus on the country's comparative advantage as a potential and actual production of different products compared to global markets is essential. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to analyses the changes in the comparative advantage of industrial plants in Iran. In this study, policy analysis matrix (PAM) is used to calculate comparative advantage in the range 2002-2011. The results of comparative advantage suggest the trend toward advantage in the production of industrial plants is in the period. According to the results given government support to provide suitable production technology and also identify areas that have the potential to produce crops, is recommended.

A B S T R A C T Temperature is one of the climate elements that has fluctuated a lot over time. When these fluctuations increase and decrease more than normal and are placed in the upper and lower regions of the statistical distribution, if continued, it can lead to the creation of heating and cooling waves. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in heating and cooling waves in Iran during a period of 50 years. For this purpose, the temperature of 663 synoptic stations from 1962 to 2004 was obtained from the Esfazari database. Then, in order to complete this database, the daily temperature from 2004 to 2011 was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and added to the aforementioned database. In order to perform calculations and draw maps, Matlab, grads and Surfer software have been used. The results of this study showed that the index of cooling waves and heating waves, while having a direct effect on each other, had an increasing trend in most of the area of Iran. The statistical distribution of the index of cooling waves is more heterogeneous than that of the index of heating waves. So that the spatial variation coefficient for cold waves is 84.22%. Also, the index of cooling waves has more spatial variability. The highest common diffraction of the index of heating and cooling waves has been seen in the northwest, east and along the Zagros mountains. Analysis of the indexes trends show that heat waves have intensified in 65.8% of Iran and the intensity of cold waves has decreased in 48.5% of Iran Extended Abstract Introduction Temperature is one of the major climatic variables, which it has a direct impact on different aspects of human life. It plays an essential role in the growth of crops and is considered a key driver of the biological system(Reicosky et al, 1988). It is associated with several types of extremes, for example, heat and cold waves which caused human societies maximum damage. Past occurrences of heat waves hitherto had significant impacts on several aspects of society. Have increased Mortality and morbidity. Ecosystems can be affected, as well as increased pressure on infrastructures that support society, such as water, transportation, and energy(Dewce, 2016). The long-term change of extreme temperatures has a key role in climatic change. The form of statistical distribution and the variability of mean values and also extreme event indicate a change in the region. It can be a small relative change in the mean as a result of a large change in the probability of extreme occurrence. Also, the variation in temperature data variance is significantly more important than the mean, for assessing the extreme occurrence of climate(Toreti and Desiato, 2008). The average surface temperature has increased the world between 0.56 and 0.92 ° C over the past 100 years(IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, it was in the Middle East, the average daily temperature increased by 0.4-0.5 ° C in decades(Kostopoulou et al, 2014; Tanarhte et al, 2012). Considering that not many studies have been done in the field of spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran, in this study, the spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran during 50 years were examined and analyzed.   Methodology The daily temperature from the beginning of the year 21/03/1967 to 19/05/2005 was obtained from the Esfazari database prepared by Dr. Masoudian at the University of Isfahan. In order to increase the time resolution of the mentioned database, the daily temperature of observations from 05/21/2005 to 05/12/2012 has been added to the mentioned database using the same method, and the exact spatial resolution (15 x 15 km) is used as a database. Threshold indices of heating waves are the average numbers between the 95th and 99th percentiles, that is, the extreme hot threshold to the limit of excessively extreme hot. For extreme cool, from the 5th percentile down to zero is used. Of course, a condition was added to these thresholds, which is that these thresholds must be repeated two days in a row. These thresholds were extracted for each day in the 50 years of the study period and used as the original database. In order to analyze the relationship between cooling and heating waves, Pearson's correlation coefficient was used and regression was used to analyze the trend.   Results and discussion The average of cold waves was 5.26 ° C and for the heat waves is 30.20° C. Generally, if the temperature is upper or lower than this threshold, it is considered as hot or cold temperatures. A comparison of the median, mode, and average of cold waves with heat waves shows that the distribution is more heterogeneous for cold waves and its CV is 84.22%. In southern Iran, the average threshold heat waves are higher. This situation can be caused by the effects of subtropical high-pressure radiation, low latitude, and proximity to the sea. Though the threshold is higher in these areas, fewer fluctuations and changes are seen in the area. Heights moderate the temperature so they pose a minimum threshold for heat waves i.e. an iso-threshold of 25 ° C is consistent along the Zagros mountain chains, but in the west and east of Zagros Mountains, the threshold of heat waves is increased. Heat waves have increased in most areas of the country. So nearly 85 percent of the Iran has been an increasing trend, of which 65.8 percent is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Still, more areas of the country (60 percent) have a trend between 0.00828 and 0.00161. As can be seen, only 15% of the land area (including the southwest and northwest of the Country) had decreased heat waves. Cold waves, in most parts of the country, have a Positive Trend. However, about 25 percent of the study area's cold waves have a negative trend. they are located in areas higher than Latitude 30°. The largest decline of the wave's trend along the country is highlands. Nowadays, most of the country, has a trend between 0.01494 and 0.00828 ° C, respectively. Conclusion Common changes and effects of heat and cold waves had a direct relationship in many parts of the country. It is remarkable common variance in the East reached 55 percent, according to statistical significance. In some areas of the northwest and southwest, which have been impressive heights, the common variance is 40 percent. This common variance in mountains area has been high values. Investigation of heat waves trend shows that 65.8% of Iran significant positive trend and 7.1% significant negative trend. Also, the cold waves trend has indicated a 48.5% significant positive trend and a 10.8% significant negative trend. Climate change and global warming have changed the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. The present study, by examining the number of warm waves, concluded that the warm waves have increased in magnitude in 65.8% of the Iran zone. Also, the study of the cold waves trend showed that 48.5 percent of Iran had a positive trend, which means that the amount of temperature in the cold waves increased In other words, the severity of the cold has been reduced And only 10.8 percent of Iran had a negative cold wave trend And it shows the intensity of these waves is reduced.   Funding There is no funding support.   Authors’ Contribution The authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approthe contenttent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.   Conflict of Interest The authors declared no conflict of interest.   Acknowledgments  We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.

Background & Aim: The aim of the study was to define the epidemiological characteristics of most important infectious diseases in Iran in recent decades.Methods & Materials: This was a situation trend analysis of infectious diseases (vector and water borne disease, and food borne diseases) in recent decades based on data availability. Three significance levels were used for Mann-Kendall test (90%, 95% and 99%).Results: The morbidities of most studied diseases had decreased in whole of the country. Unlike other diseases, coetaneous leishmaniasis had not followed the deacreasing trend. In terms of location, Khorasan-e-Shomali was followed the increasing pattern for in four out of six disaeses [malaria, leishmaniasis (coetaneous and visceral), and typhoid].Conclusion: In conclusion, there is a significant decreasing trend of most important infectious diseases in Iran. Nevertheless, climate change is already happening and would influence the diseases trends. Hence, developing and implementing adaptation strategies should be considered.

Identification of a real time of a change in a process, when an out-of-control signal is present is significant. This may reduce costs of defective products as well as the time of exploring and fixing the cause of defects. Another popular topic in the Statistical Process Control (SPC) is profile monitoring, where knowing the distribution of one or more quality characteristics may not be appropriate for discussing the quality of processes or products.One, rather, uses a relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variable for this purpose. In this paper, the concept of Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) applied to estimate of the change point in binary profiles, when the type of change is drift. Simulation studies are provided to evaluate the effectiveness of the change point estimator.

Over the past decades, global warming has undergone significant changes in weather and climate cycles, such as increased water vapor in the atmosphere, increased Precipitation and reduced Precipitation. This research was designed with the aim of modeling Precipitation in the region of West Asia under the influence of climate change. For this purpose, the Precipitation data of the West Asia region for the period 1961-2015 and 2016-2045 was downloaded under the A1B scenario of the HADCM3 model from the Canadian Climate Change Center (CCCSN). In the next step, using the R2 and RMSE statistics, the accuracy of the model was evaluated and the modeling results were of great accuracy. The slope of precipitation, using the sen'smethod, showed that in January, February, July and August, precipitation would increase and decrease in other months of the year. The Precipitation season with the Man-Kendall method also shows that the prevailing trend is decreasing throughout the year, and the incremental precipitation will only be related to precipitation and 24-hour Precipitation. Also, the results of this study showed that Precipitation in the Mediterranean and Sudanese systems is increasing, and this increase will not have a good prospect for the aquatic environment of the region, as 1-areas with increasing trend during the warm year will evaporate the Precipitation received from the surface and An increase in precipitation in the cold season also causes flooding of the rainforest.

Determining the trend of soil temperature change is of special importance due to the close relationship with sustainable agricultural management. In this study, in order to investigate the trend of soil temperature change in three stations of Kangavar, Kermanshah and Sarpolzahab, which have different climates, a series of daily soil temperature data for 25 years (1993 to 2018) of these stations were obtained from the meteorological organization of the country. Using daily averages of soil temperature, the averages of warm period (spring and summer) and cold period of the year (autumn and winter) and the averages of annual were adjusted and calculated based on the solar calendar. Mann-Kendall and Sen’ s slope estimator tests were used to analyze the soil temperature trend at 95 and 99% confidence levels. Analysis of Kangavar synoptic station data series showed a significant upward trend using the both tests for annual soil temperature averages. In Kermanshah station, despite the increase in soil temperature values at all depths, no significant trend in the average annual soil temperature was observed. Sarpolzahab station also did not show any trend. In Kangavar and Kermanshah stations, the increasing trend in soil surface temperature showed a higher value, which is due to the greater influence between soil surface temperature and air temperature. The average of temperature increase in 5-cm soil depth for Kermanshah and Kangavar stations were estimated to be 0. 04 and 0. 10 degree of Celsius per year, respectively. The increase in the average annual soil temperature of stations with increasing trend was recognized in the warm period of the year, mainly due to heat storage.